Cobb

"No plan survives contact with the enemy."

Amen.

The problem with alot of the "blame game" is that it assumes a level of mendacity or sloth on the part of the purported culprit that is simply unrealistic. Obviously, Bush, Brown and Nagin are human beings who don't want to see other human beings suffer. Obviously, they all want to do what they can to help other people. I think that principle applies to Nagin and to Bush.

On the other hand, it is fair to look at the situation - later - and see what went right and what went wrong. An awful lot went right in New Orleans, and we can learn from that. For heaven's sake, a major urban area was substantially evacuated in 24 hours. I don't think that has ever been done before.

I personally am wondering about the levee itself, and why it failed. That's something that needs examination.

No plan survives contact with the enemy

That's correct.

For the record, I don't blame Nagin for the response of the cops. That's on them.

On 80% of people getting out. That's the good thing. On the other 20%, that's where I have trouble.

The bus use was to help account for the other 20%. Actually, it would probably be less since some just wanted to stay regardless.

Next, if there was an issue between him and the gov., it should have been shelved during this time. The blame, if any, goes to both of them on that one.

Lastly, like I wrote before, the fact that he's a Dem, to me, doesn't matter. Nor does it matter to me that he's "really" a Rep.

I don't think anyone believes the final death toll will be anywhere near 200, and even if it is there was no way of knowing that at the time the buses should have been moving, so I'd give that factor a lot more weight than you seem to. As to the plan, the part you didn't bold is just as important as the part you did, especially in a city as poor as New Orleans, where many people lack cars.

I agree that Superdome squalor should probably be a non-factor WRT to Nagin, but not for the reason you give. Right now, it strikes me as a huge negative factor against Gov. Blanco, whose administration appears to have prohibited the Red Cross and the Salvation Army from bringing any supplies there. I don't know Mayor Nagin played any role in that, however; I assume he probably didn't.

Last, but not necessarily least, I don't think it is correct to say Mayor Nagin upheld civil liberty. Right now his police chief is ordering everyone disarmed, which is almost certainly a violation of R.S. 14:329.6, not to mention the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution or Article 1, Section 11 of Louisiana's.

X,
If Volokh says so it must be right, however I think that Nagin has wiggle room now if he were willing to call martial law. This latest issue with forced evacuations initiated yesterday seemed to be handled fairly diplomatically, either way I didn't think it's so important.

I didn't mention it, but he never did declare martial law, nor did Blanco (which is really bizarre since she gave the illegal shoot looters sentiment lots of airtime. Could that be construed as incitement?) I'm not sure that it was within Nagin's power to declare martial law which is why I left that unmentioned. But he clearly operated short of that which is why he took heat early on for letting looters loot. I should have been more clear on the point but I didn't want to build up Nagin by tearing down Blanco.

I think she'll implode from several directions especially if what you're saying is true.

I'm willing to bet a nickel that they'll find fewer than 200 more bodies in the city.

Ed,
I think it's significant that Nagin was a Republican before going Dem for the election. Like I said a lot of righties are kneejerking on this and some of it is pure racial bigotry. I hear it loud and clear and I want people called on that.

Like I said a lot of righties are kneejerking on this and some of it is pure racial bigotry.

Yep. I agree with that one.

This is the part that gets to me:

School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in evacuating.

I didn't see any effort to mobilize these resources for the people it's meant to help (and this is important) prior to landfall -- Sunday, when the majority of the roads were still passable. Post-landfall, it's very touch and go whether rolling buses would have been any use.

Additionally, I haven't seen any plan that effects notification to those who would be willing to take advantage of public evacaution methods. Given even 24 hours to start rolling buses at planned intervals to planned pickup locations and then out of the city, how many fewer people would have been picked off roofs?

Point being -- this part of the plan (public transport evac, pre-landfall) doesn't need to survive contact with the enemy. It proactively avoids contact with the enemy for those who want to do so. The rest, of course, go into the grim calculus being done.

And, for my money, Nagin has performed as well as any big-city mayor can be expected to perform. Kind of a camera hog pub seeker, but that's just endemic civic politiosis. I shudder to think how my mayor would perform in his stead.

Never ascribe to racism what can be more easily explained by other, more socially acceptable stereotypes. Speaking only for myself, prior to reading this entry, I shared many of the same assumptions early on about Nagin myself. I assumed the worst about the guy not because he's black, but because he's the mayor of New Orleans.

Mr. Bowen, I find your Defense of Mayor Nagin in your post bears out some interesting findings. On a word frequency analysis of the entire post, the word Nagin occurs 51 times. The word responsibility occurs but 3 times:

1. The evacuation plan clearly places the overwhelming majority of the responsibility for evacuation on the citizens themselves.

2. One cannot logically parse the volume of information presented by Nagin's office and conclude that any government entity, city, county, state or Federal would bear significant responsibility for getting people out of harm's way.

3. The responsibility for the morale of the PD falls squarely on Nagin's Administration.

Further on we are told:

4. “Nagin's antipathy to Blanco evidenced itself in his ignorance of what Blanco's plans were.”

I would like to ask a question:

Did the Mayor of New Orleans have any significant important responsibilities regarding disaster preparedness in event of a hurricane of any magnitude in New Orleans ?

The Red Cross was not allowed to send supplies in. Nagin bears at least some responsibility for that happening. Nagin also seems to be fond of advocating illegal forced entries, gun seizures, and forced evacuations. Democrat or Republican, he should have created some sort of relationship with the surrounding parishes law enforcement so the poor could at least walk out.

In the end, the guy's going to take his lumps in the after action report, just like everybody else. I'll hold final judgment until then and anybody who doesn't is a fool. Everything is provisional right now.

Scott I see your point with regard to a proactive mandatory evac using buses for indigent people before landfall. That was a window of opportunity for which I can see Nagin clearly has responsibility whether or not it was part of a stated plan. Since he had declared the evacuation to be mandatory it draws attention to the estimates he must have had with regard to the number of people he expected to evacuate by bus and those who would be using the Superdome. This is something I could not see because of the diversion of buses underwater. Clear.

McK,
I believe Nagin and state officials certainly had a responsibility to have a plan, and in reading what has been published regarding preparedness, my interpretation was that they felt that it was impossible for them to handle any significant responsibility for evacuation. Given that, their communication of that incapacity appeared to me to be very self evident. I've said all along that "you're on your own" with regard to the primary responsibility for evacuation was loud and clear in Nagin's plan.

However it was the matter of the flood which ratcheted up the responsibility. Once people would have to be rescued long after landfall the magnitude of the catastrophe became clearer and the Mayor screamed for help.

I believe that the contingency of a levee failure was not part of their evacuation plan, and for that they are accountable to the extent that the flood caused extra suffering and death. The revelation of the failure of the City (and state?) to secure matching funds for levee improvement from the Feds by not kicking in their own tax dollars is significant as well, but it is not clear that this is soley Nagin's burden. Furthermore on that score I had been previously convinced that an infrastructure project of the magnitude required to secure the levee system from Category 4 would have takend many many years and billions.

On point three, I am not clear, aside from the media concentration on it, what material effect Nagin's PDs morale had on the disaster relief. I say that strictly as a political failure. The responsibility of cops to stay on duty is their own.

Point four is all on Nagin. Again I'm not going to take down Blanco here. Nagin's second guessing of her may all be vindicated. I don't know. But that too is all a political failure.

TM, all this about forced illegal entries and gun seizures is news starting from yesterday afternoon. I haven't followed that. Again, I think if Nagin has the legal authority to declare martial law, then he can disarm the populace.

X,
I don't discount the probability of racial sterotypes playing here. Am I the only one who has heard that Nagin is just another in a succession of black mayors?

The morale of the NOLA PD has nothing to do with the mayor.

The NOLA PD has a strong history of being corrupt and criminal. That has more on morale than anything Nagin has done or not done.

Anymore...I hate to align myself with any party. They're both letting me down something horrific with all the postulating and finger-pointing and positioning. But I won't go there.

In defense of Ray, what I liked most about what I have seen and continue to see from him is raw, true emotion. Heartbreak, anger, concern, human response to a situation of great crisis. And frankly, that's not something I see much in any politician. Not with any great sincerity.

You're probably not the only one who has heard that, but I haven't heard it myself, despite having been recently overrun by a herd of racist trolls from Steve Sailer's personal web site and VDare, who have managed to find some way to attribute almost everything else about New Orleans to race.

I think I've learned the hard way, X, that you can't really step halfway into racial discussions, even though common sense and courtesy dictates that you should. So I've kinda determined that I have to go to the wall every time the subjects are raised, even though I hate getting bogged down in it. It's frustrating. It used to be compelling, but now it just wears on my nerves. Ultimately, you can't be squirrelly on it, because the number of people who are wrong boggles the mind. What often passes for sensible keeping of the peace is, embarrassed silence or shame or codewords. That's cheesy...

Ed, you're right about the NOPD. The question is more properly whether Nagin's reforms (and the police analyst who used to work for Bratton in NYC on the 'broken windows' theory) have help or hurt overall. I wouldn't doubt that New Orleans has similar problems to Los Angeles with regard to recruitment in some communities. The Coalition of the Damned is probably lurking out there, defending snipers. Let's see if Tony Muhammad makes it out there... At least Rev Al shutup and was a Reverend for a change.

More interesting reporting from the NYT.

I think Nagin did what he could. He certainly speaks his mind and although he made mistakes, I think he probably saved a lot of lives as well.

As for the buses, that was a question that I had and he answered it. Althoug he had buses, he lacked the human resources to protect all of them. And I think the city was overwhelmed as soon as the storm hit.

I was really critical of Nagin at first but I've come to an understanding of his position and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. From what I hear, most in New Orleans will as well.

With Mike Brown retiring today, at least that point was proven. He was not the man for the job.

Excellent post, Cobb.

On Nagin, his performance will be determined at the polls. Be it re-elected or not or a recall vote.

I'm willing to bet a nickel that they'll find fewer than 200 more bodies in the city.

There's one bet I was really, really hoping to lose, and for a little while it almost seemed like I might. Unfortunately, I just won it.

Sorry, Cobb, I'm not buying. From what I've seen, Nagin looks like a guy who's in way over his head, and has been quick to complain how everybody but himself is screwing up.

His defense of why the buses didn't roll was particularly weak. It has been widely reported that at least one 18-year-old kid comandeered a bus, picked up a load of people, and drove them to safety on his own, presumably without any specialized training.

Race isn't an issue for me here -- but competence is. As Xriq so deftly put it: "I assumed the worst about the guy not because he's black, but because he's the mayor of New Orleans."

Nagin figured out that black republicans talk trash, black democrats win elections.

Simple as that!

I'm a 66 year old white guy in Florida. My first impression of the Mayor was that he was a typical Democrat. I don't follow the MSM but as I read more about what he was saying and doing on the web, my opinion about him has gone way up. He sounds like a straight shooter and I wish him the best in a terrible situation.

I like your blog and your analysis. Many, on both sides, have overlooked the fact that Nagin was a Republican prior to taking office.

I agree with many of your points. He seems like a nice guy. He has been dealt some rough cards. Goes with the territory.

I see leadership failure in a time of crisis, which is the worst time for a problem to manifest itself. This is the type of weakness that is not readily apparent until a crisis presents. We had an idea of Giuliani's backbone given his tenure as District Attorney for NYC. I think all were still amazed and relieved by the steps Giuliani took.

Neither the mayor of N.O. or the Governor of LA showed strong leadership. This is not a dem/rep issue. It's a leadership issue. If you know a CAT 5 is bearing down on your city and you've studied the evac plan and the catastrophic scenarios, it's time to follow a plan and then to deviate as needed. This calls for drastic steps. "Above and beyond the plan we have in place, I am recalling all city bus drivers to report for duty. I am directing the police department and requesting assistance from LA Homeland Security to assist with the evacuation of those who cannot move themselves. I have been in touch with the governor who is doing her best to ensure that other cities in LA can provide temporary shelter. This is not a perfect solution, but we are facing something we have not seen before, we face the potential for drastic loss of life."
There's no playbook for that. Perhaps you think this commentary unfair, and in fact, it is. This is what differentiates a situation of mass chaos from the general public at least understanding people hustled and did everything that they could.
Kind of hard to evaluate a candidate (of ANY party) in this regard. When disaster strikes, we expect results.
I hope he leads his city to better days. I hope America can learn from the perfect storm: Katrina/Nagin/Blanco/FEMA-Brown.

Excellent post, McdBowen. In my opinion, Nagin did a good job under impossible circumstances.

With regards to the issue of the unusued buses: The possibility in the state and city plan of using buses for an evacuation was contingent on having enough drivers who can be counted around on to stick around for a Category 5 hurricane. If you're a driver, your incilination is going to be to gather your family and get the hell out of New Orleans as soon as possible. As Nagin told Tim Russert, the city barely had enough drivers as it was to transport people to the Superdome.

Peter,
With all due respect, I consider the "not enough drivers" meme to be lame. Driving is a skill taught in high school. If the Mayor felt hard pressed for drivers he could have walked into any video arcade or street corner and found people who could have done the job. For that matter need he looked beyond his own office? "I need X number of volunteers who know how to drive to use buses to take evacuees out of town. Get them away from here. You and you and you! You've all volunteered. Now get going!" Would these deputised drivers necessarily have been as skilled at it as experienced bus drivers? Maybe not but they would certainly be more useful than cowards who were too gutless to do the job for which they were hired however skilled and experienced such cowards might be.

"Not enough drivers" my eye! If Nagin truly thought there weren't enough people who knew how to drive buses in New Orleans then either he suffered from a deficiency in imagination in the face of dire emergency or else he must hold the people of his city in a truly profound pit of contempt. I hope for the sake of New Orleans that it's the former.

Yesterday on the news I saw the mayor of Slidell trying to 'pull a Nagin'. His complaint about FEMA promising assistance and delivering nothing sounded remarkably familiar. He did a bit of grandstanding in front of the reporter, then went on about his dismal thankless job.

I'll add this one note as well. Nobody has suggested at any point that Nagin has been criminally negligent. The DA has already filed charges against some nursing home operators. Do any of the naysayers think that Nagin should pay anything greater than political consequences?

dud e you need to open your eyes and step back on earth! Nagin failed his people and thats all its to it. wether you like it or not NAGIN is a murder in is curupt muder,drug use, city. he had ample time to evacute his people at least three days notice of this storm coming then turn around and wait to the last 24 hours is not a good leader. then try to repopulate the city with all the dangers there and plus another storm is on the way? THE MAN IS AND IDIOT! Open your eyes and stop smelling the roses cause ther died!

I've never had it spelled out to me quite that way.