Cobb

Partitioning Iraq along ethnic lines would be a very practical solution to easing the long-standing tensions between Kurds, Sunni and Shi'a. Keep in mind Iraq is a mid 20th century artificial construct, built with respect to expeditious oil distribution to the West.

I'm curious as to your justification for military bases in Iraq or its post-partitioned states.

It may sound crude or arrogant, but it's just a real a fact of war as guns and bullets. We won. We have the right. Now we are giving sovereingty over to the Iraqi people, but we have as much right to those bases as the ones in Germany, the Phillipines and every place else.

In particular, I would hope that the American military presence will contain Iranian designs on a weakened Iraq. We can't leave a military vaccuum. Furthermore, American bases in Iraq overwhelmingly reduce the necessity and likelihood of Israel's force projection in the region.

Cobb,

The partitioning of Iraq is becoming a fact anyway. Kurds are pouring into areas they want to control via political process that they deem "historical ethnic strongholds". Shi'ite power is concentrated in specific areas. The Sunnis will end up the losers, however. I believe much of the resistance we face today is based upon the knowledge that Sunni's glory days are over in Iraq unless they fight tooth and nail. The Sunni's are supporting several Shia efforts, but that is merely a means to dislodge the larger threat before tackling the smaller ones.

Bases - Yes! Iran and Syria, pre-war, are contained only by ozone. Bases need to be considered long term, expecially since our ability to project force is limited otherwise. Our projection of force is many areas is handled by an aircraft carrier task force - limited impact. A carrier task force supporting boots in the region is another story.

Complex issues, but that's the gist version. Thanks for posing this - it's important.

One problem: Turkey absolutely, positively does not want the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish state. The United States probably horse-traded that option away early in the conflict.

Scott hits on probably the biggest geopolitical reality against US support for partitioning. Early in the occupation partitioning would have allowed us to basically lets the Kurds go about their business and concentrate in the south, but another reality is that a division of Kurdistan from Iraq also takes away a large chunk of the oil revenues that are being leveraged for reconstruction throughout Iraq. While separation from Iraq would have economically benefitted the Kurds, they would have also gained a Northern neighbor that, if not hostile, was at the least extremely suspicious. Not to mention a harder row to hoe throughout the region. The major advantage the Kurds gain in being part of Iraq is the collective strength from joining with Arabs and Shi'ia. As part of Iraq they can benefit from Arab connections they would never be able to secure as an independent Kurdistan.

At this time, however, partitioning seems not only a dead concept but unnecessary. Not only do most Iraqis I have read dismiss the idea (agreed a very non-scientific sampling), but despite the doom and gloomers the violence we are seeing in Iraq is not largely along ethnic lines nor is it in the nature of civil/tribal warfare. So, from a practical persective, there is really nothing to gain, from a security perspective, from partition.

The comments about Turkey are correct, IMO.

If the Kurds get their partition, Turkey will have no choice but to go to war.

Partitioning Iraq between the Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis makes sense. Global research shows that countries with ethnic homogeneity and populations of under 5 million are among the world's most prosperous nations (USA is the notable exception, and our bloody Civil War and decentralized government are cited as the reasons). The Kurds are longtime U.S. allies and are lightyears ahead of the other Iraqi regions on democratization and economic liberalization.

However, partition is a decision that Iraqis must make, not others. I predict it won't happen, since the most lucrative oil fields are in Kurdish areas. And as Scott pointed out, Turkey adamantly opposes an independent Kurdistan because it would raise the hopes of its own Kurdish minority.