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October 01, 2004

The Debate

I bought a Tivo yesterday but it was still talking to Tivo Central when the debate aired, so I didn't get a chance to record it or watch, pause and analyze. Instead, when I got bored, which was a number of times, I went into the other room to watch the spinning dials on the Tivo download screen.

So this morning I am checking out other blogs in search of the kind of rapt fascination and borderline obsession required to pull significant rabbits of analysis out of the empty hat of this particular debate. So far, there doesn't seem to be anyone who says that victory was decisive.

From my perspective it seemed to go well. Bush made a number of faces as Kerry droned on, but never seemed to be able to zing Kerry except on the North Korea bilateralism thing. Kerry brought up a lot of nice geopolitical points that the President had adequate responses to and kept Bush on the defensive. Bush beat his drum on Kerry's flipflopiness and putative inability to stay on message, as if the Bully Pulpit had telekinetic powers. Hmm, perhaps a little Karl Rove speaking through his puppet? Kerry gave a 7 year old 'Am not!' with his "I've never wavered in my life" response. Today he'll regret that one.

I can say that I've heard more about Sudan from this debate than in all the news. I can say with some certainty that we know where that's going. As for Iraq, it remains as muddy as ever.

Kerry began to remind me of the Kerry he started out to be a long time ago. A reasonably smart guy who has a shot. What I saw him do last night was behave like somebody who is not winning and smiling and taking photographs. In other words, he was a grownup for once. I think he's completely out to lunch in his desire to placate every possible ally and stretch diplomacy beyond its capacity, which is especially damning considering his gaffe on kicking China to the curb in dealing with the DPRK, but at least he appears to give everything considerable thought. He still smells like a Senator but he could step up.

The President seemed very much to be his same old self. But unlike many presidents at the four year mark, the gravitas grey hair just doesn't seem to be working for him. It's true that by the end, he gave me the impression of a man solidly and confidently in control. But he also gave me the impression that he just wishes he could curse Kerry out and show him what for. Part of this impression comes from a debating style analysis I heard the other night from James Fallows and I think it's quite accurate now. Bush bites his tongue and that's why he mangles, and he does it because he is somewhat overawed by the power of his words. So he has a trunk of stock phrases that he uses consistently lest he be misinterpreted. He can't be glib around the edges.

That doesn't change the fact that he has lousy rejoinders, and his inability to verbally pimpslap his challenger works against him. By being graceful GWBush has elevated his opponent slightly. Kerry is no upstart to be put in his place and he is the best hope the Democrats have. Still Kerry cannot outrun his rhetorical excess and record. There is little in the unknown quantity box for either of them.

By the way, Bush's story about telling the wife of the downed soldier that it was worth it, just grabbed all the emotion in the room. There was nothing else even close, and despite the fact that Kerry scored a cookie for suggesting that the reason wasn't as noble as the act, it was too little too late, and actually felt like a cheap shot.

So I'll continue my reading, and get back to this.

Posted by mbowen at October 1, 2004 08:47 AM

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Comments

That has to be one of the most... er... creative analyses of the President I've ever read. But the President's performance was "graceful"?

His frequent malaprops explained as a person "... overawed by the power of his words"?

C'mon, Cobb.

Posted by: MIB at October 1, 2004 12:34 PM

Bush stays on message and he doesn't talk extemporaneously without being pushed. He's tight-lipped and doesn't want to speak out of school. But I get the impression that behind closed doors he'll talk a blue streak peppered with curses, malaprops, and all kinds of shit, and that by the time he's finished you know exactly, unambiguously what he thinks. I've had bosses like that.

But put him in front of a microphone and camera and he's all toned down. You can see traces of where he splutters - where what he really wants to say gets pre-empted by what he has to say *presidentially*.

Posted by: cobb at October 1, 2004 12:53 PM

In the end it's all mental masturbation.

These are the questions about the debate:

1. Were you decided on who you were voting for before the debate?

2. Did the debate change your mind?

3. If the debate changed your mind, why?

4. Who is the best person to run the country?

#4 trumps 1-3.

Posted by: DarkStar at October 1, 2004 01:38 PM

I guess I don't see the President as this dignified, articulate executive toning his act down for mass consumption. I expect all political candidates to stay on point to a degree, but Gump has this habit of speaking as if he's not quite sure of what he's saying but it it's repeated enough, it'll somehow make sense to us.

There's nothing wrong with being plain-spoken. I've worked for my share of coarse or gruff individuals. But they could explain their positions in detail, even if they had to rely on a few colorful metaphors in the process. When confronted, the President reacts as if he's been knocked off-balance; he next goes into vapor lock momentarily to then fall back on a pat answer. ('There's no place like home... the world's safer without Saddam'.) Keep in mind, these are the reactions from a person who's been prepped exhaustively.

After about 35 minutes of, 1) "The world is safer without Saddam Hussein", 2) "I made a decision" and, 3) "It's tough work", the incumbent had shot his entire wad without addressing any details of his own for Iraq/WOT/homeland security or owning up to now-known mistakes. I concur with him that the President needs to act decisively and portray integrity, but to insist on consistency of action (?) when the results can be proven as wrong is irresponsible and reckless.

Posted by: MIB at October 1, 2004 02:12 PM

Kerry performed quite well overall, but after confusing Lubyanka Square (Russian home of KGB documents) with Treblinka (Nazi death camp in Poland), I don't think he or his supporters are in any position to make fun of Bush for his Malaprops.

Posted by: Xrlq at October 1, 2004 02:14 PM

Oh yeah, I caught that one too.

Posted by: cobb at October 1, 2004 02:33 PM

Coleman Young was plainspoken. Would cuss (and DID) on national tv to make a point (particularly if he thought the interviewer was either an idiot, a racist, against Detroit in some way, or a combination of all three). There is a distinct difference between someone who is plain spoken and someone who is inarticulate.

Bush looked like he was handled. Like he had a stock set of tactics, designed to deal with a caricatured version of John Kerry.

Kerry on the other hand looked to be in command of the facts. In a number of cases I felt he was softer than he should have been. Wet paper soft.

Bush's story about the soldier did nothing for me. I suspect the domestic debate to be more of the same. Bush can be a better debater, but I do not think it possible for him to present facts on his feet.

Posted by: Lester Spence at October 1, 2004 03:13 PM

If I held to any standards of debate, I would have watched less than the 30 minutes I did. Again, I'm not sure blogospheric rigor is possible on television. So I'm really not sticking to the substance of the debate, just the things it told me that I could only guess before.

Again, the Fallows analysis I think still holds water. Listen.

Posted by: cobb at October 1, 2004 03:27 PM

mental masturbation

Interesting!

Posted by: LB at October 1, 2004 06:40 PM

Could you post that link again, I can't get to it.

You're right. It definitely isn't possible in most circumstances to talk about these issues with rigor when you've got nothing but a clean notebook in front of you and you're being grilled. But there is a standard internal to debates that we can measure this by. Kerry made a few mistakes, in tone, and in substance.

But Bush's response continually focused on language designed to evoke strength and consistancy. In as much as the questions he was asked required facts and data, he failed miserably. His language did not fit the circumstances.

Posted by: Lester Spence at October 1, 2004 07:43 PM

Cobb, I have to admit, I am surprised to hear you singing this tune. While it is rare that I agree with you on anything, I respect your intelligence. Bush proved once and for all last night that without his handlers he is a poor impression of Forresst Gump. He got his ass handed to him on a plate last night, no matter how you spin it, and I would rather someone be confussed over Moscow geography than the difference between Saddam Husein and OBL any day.

Posted by: David Anderson at October 1, 2004 09:22 PM

James Fallows:
http://freshair.npr.org/day_fa.jhtml?display=day&todayDate=09/28/2004

I haven't heard anything from Kerry which suggests that he'll handle anything better. I know W speaks like an idiot but he's not an idiot.

Posted by: Cobb at October 2, 2004 08:04 AM