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December 30, 2003
Predictions for 2004
A bunch of predictions for 2004.
Tech
Tech IPOs will make a comeback.
Linux makes no inroads to the desktop.
Halo2 breaks all console videogame records.
Microsoft is reborn. People will say Gates has done it again.
Microsoft brands a PC.
Apple ports more Windows software.
Politics
GOP breaks ranks over spending & civil liberties.
Brokered Democratic Convention. Dean/Gephardt/Clark
Blogs break a major scandal and get tongue wagging approval from skeptics.
Term limits lose support.
Taxation comes back via 'fees'. States use clever rhetoric, fool nobody.
Arts & Culture
Hiphop sweeps the Grammys
Reality TV shows bite the dirt.
A new cult TV show is born in the tradition of Buffy
Children's fashion gets trashy.
Digital music pervades. RIAA gains a prominent political foe.
People get sick of Merlot. Shiraz gains even more ground.
Harry Potter 3 is a massive critical success.
Sports
Chargers leave San Diego
No Americans medal in Olympic gymnastics despite hype.
Tiger Woods gets the Grand Slam.
Venus Williams quits / gets injured.
The Greek Olympics are a big dud.
Currents
Assisted Suicide gains support.
A huge hack/worm gives put computer security in the headlines.
Americans invent more stupid reasons to hate France.
World
Single State theory gains ground in Israel/Palestine.
Most American forces leave Iraq.
Health
SARS hits US
Business & Finance
Outsourcing backlash gets fierce.
Dow 11,000
NASDAQ 2100
Wal-Mart evolves the organic food business. Whole Foods moves forward.
Posted by mbowen at December 30, 2003 09:59 PM
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Comments
Excellent predictions. Do you have a scoop on the MS PC?
I think it will be Dow 11500 via Dow 9500 -- should be a lot of sound and fury to gain a measly 1000 points...
I would take the other side re: the tech IPO's. What the market really wants to buy are manufacturers. If there are successful tech IPO's, they won't be in software.
I think the brokered convention meme is wrong. If it looks like a brokered convention is in the offing, deals will be made ahead of time. The convention will remain a rubber stamp.
No terrorist attach prediction? The probabilities are hard to gauge...
Posted by: Christopher at December 31, 2003 02:09 AM
woo! not so hot. i think you're supposed to approach 50/50 before you can be a certified prognosticator, C-man. you got a few right, but except for culture, you're prolly at least a year ahead of schedule on most of these. then again, there's still anotehr 3mths to go in the oh-four.
Posted by: memer at October 7, 2004 12:50 PM